Do You Have to Hit the Bullseye to Win at Darts?

http://mashable.com/2014/07/11/israel-iron-dome-failure/

“As a result, rockets fired from Gaza are probably plunging to the ground with intact explosives. The fact that they aren’t causing injuries or deaths in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other cities is mainly a matter of luck, the analysts add.” …This reminds me of those Iraqi scud missiles in the first Gulf war.”

After Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the United States attacked Iraq. Saddam Hussein vowed to “incinerate” Israel with his Scud missiles. While the United States ordered Israel to refrain from self-defense and retaliation, Iraq showered 39 Scud missiles on the most densely populated area of Israel. Miraculously, only one Israeli was killed.

In the wake of this war, the prestigious scientific journal Nature,[4] as well as M.I.T.,[5] published articles trying to evaluate how Israel was spared massive tragedy. Scientifically and militarily, the casualties should have been far greater. In previous wars elsewhere in the world in which V-2 Scud missiles were launched, massive casualties ensued. Even during the Gulf War, one Iraqi Scud missile striking Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killed 28 American soldiers.

Let’s analyze the Gulf War in Israel. In 1944, when Germany attacked London, the ratio of casualties was five deaths and eleven severe injuries per missile. In the Tehran War, 1980-88, Iraq launched Scud missiles against Iran. In this war, the ratio of casualties was approximately thirteen deaths and thirty severe injuries per missile. Relative to these statistics, Israel should have suffered between 195 and 507 total deaths from 39 Scuds. Instead, it suffered only one death. (The population differential was: Iran 300/hectare and London 43/hectare. The population in Tel Aviv, which suffered the major brunt of the missile attacks, was 70/hectare. That’s more than 1.6 times the amount of London!) In terms of severe injuries, Israel could have been expected to suffer between 429 and 1170 severe injuries from 39 Scud missiles. Instead, there were 230 injuries. Of these, ten were moderate, and only one was severe.”

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s